GLASGOW, Scotland (PNN) - April 20, 2014 - Alex Salmond is on the brink of securing a historic victory in the referendum, according to an exclusive poll suggesting Yes Scotland needs a swing of just over 2% to win independence.
A landmark ICM survey reveals a decline in the No vote from 46% to 42% over the past month. Over the same period, the Yes vote has remained steady at 39%, resulting in a significant tightening of the gap between the two sides.
When the 19% “don’t knows” are excluded from the equation, the No vote stands at 52%, with 48% in favor of Scotland going it alone. This is the highest level of Yes support to be recorded by an independently commissioned opinion poll.
Further analysis reveals that the 460,000 people who live in Scotland but were born in England could play a major role in the outcome of the referendum.
According to the survey, the 15% of the 1,004 sample who were born in England are far more likely to vote No than their Scottish-born counterparts.
Only 28% of English-born voters say they will vote Yes, compared with 58% who say they will vote No.
This contrasts with Scots-born voters who, taken alone, are in favor of independence by 42% to 40%.
The small sample size means some caution is required. But yesterday Professor John Curtice, the Strathclyde University elections expert, acknowledged that the reluctance of English-born voters to embrace independence could prove crucial when votes are cast on September 18.
“In a tight race, they could yet hold the key to the referendum,” Curtice said. “It is an indication that appealing to the non-Scots-born part of the population is rather more difficult for the Yes side to achieve. They are more likely to retain a sense of British identity and they are more likely to want to remain part of the UK. They are internal UK migrants.”
Looking at the responses to the independence question as a whole, Curtice said that today’s survey was the closest seen so far in the referendum campaign, which will heat up this week as both sides launch new poster campaigns in an attempt to win more people to their causes.
“This is another poll showing the No side is in a real battle if it wants to keep Scotland in the Union,” said Curtice. “When the ‘don’t knows’ are excluded, it is the highest Yes vote in a poll that has not been commissioned by a partisan organization.”
The poll is the latest in a series of surveys that have made worrying reading for the Better Together campaign. This week, Labor will attempt to rejuvenate the No campaign by holding a meeting of its shadow cabinet in Glasgow on Friday.
In what promises to be a big week for Ed Miliband’s party, former prime minister Gordon Brown will speak from a Better Together platform for the first time on Tuesday when he will argue that an independent Scotland would struggle to cover escalating pension costs.
Until now, Brown has only spoken on constitutional matters under a Labor banner. His decision to join the cross-party Better Together will be seen as an attempt to bury his differences with Alistair Darling, the campaign leader.
By holding its shadow cabinet north of the Border, Labor is signaling that its big players are stepping up their fight for the Union.
Last night, Scotland on Sunday’s poll was welcomed by Yes Scotland’s chief executive, Blair Jenkins.
He said, “This is another very encouraging poll - the narrowest gap in the campaign so far and a swing of just two points is all that is needed to put Yes ahead, which we are confident of achieving. Our latest poster campaign shows that we are stepping up activity further in the months ahead to achieve a Yes vote on September 18 - and deliver a fairer, more prosperous country to benefit everyone who lives here.”
Jenkins added, “The extreme negativity of the No campaign is proving a major turn-off for voters, and month by month they are paying the price.”
According to our latest poll, the Yes side could be close to taking the lead in the referendum race. But what does it have to do if the progress made so far is to be turned into victory in September?
Nothing does more to persuade voters of the merits of voting Yes than the prospect of a more prosperous future. But at the moment there are still rather more pessimists than optimists.
